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Post-Apocalyptic World: Possible Futures for the Travel Industry

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Although it has been around one-and-a-half years, the Covid-19 pandemic is still a big thing that we cannot get used to – much less shake off.

For us in Bali, where the pandemic flipped nearly everything, this is more than just a disaster. It is far greater than that. Back in May of 2020, Mario Gavira, a notable figure in the world of tech, travel and investment, wrote a series of articles where he foretold predictions about how this pandemic would affect the culture of traveling as we know it. How did his predictions stand along the way?

He broke it down into four possibilities: 

1.) Travel swings back to normal in 2021. A very hopeful scenario. Surely, when the pandemic was only a few months young, we all wished that it wouldn’t reach too long. Of course, the sad reality was, we predicted for far too many times. By Q3 of 2020, by autumn of 2020, by the end of 2020, by the beginning of 2021, and so on. None came true.

2.) The end of mass tourism. Quality (of safety and health) did overcome and overpowered quantity when it comes to traveling. The whole maximum capacity mentality for maximum profit was out of the window when everyone everywhere was not allowed to be confined or grouped in large numbers. Including as airplane passengers and hotel guests.

3.) Big is beautiful in the new travel order. Only the biggest and strongest (financially) will survive. Government backed airlines and international hotel chains are the ones most likely to go through until the end with least damage. With the economy crumbling and traveling becoming less and less of a priority, having a stable balance sheet or large network would definitely help in the long run – although still with its sacrifices.

4.) Travel moves from atoms to bits. It’s all about adapting to the new normal in the new world. Once the Darwinist natural selection for the travel business is over, we will be left with what is left of the bunch. Either they are strong enough, or smart enough to make new innovations or survive on saving graces that they can still continue.

Scary? Indeed. And from the look of it, his predictions looked more like different stages of a single scenario instead of four separate universes. At this point, we are at number three, and beginning our ascend into number four. Should we get ready?

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